when you are a dictator for 20 years, we saw this when he went into ukraine, obviously he was not well briefed. people aren't going to come to him and give him information that they know he doesn't want to hear. the strongman, everyone relies on them for their wealth and their power. and so they tell them what they want to hear. so goshen, he thought he could control him and use prigozhin to maybe put pressure on one of these kinds of guys. it is gotten out of hand. now he has a crack down. i suspect like assad or syria, he will be successful cracking down in the short term. but this has created humiliation for a dictator who lot relies on power and control, this kind of humiliation is the beginning of really showing weakness. we guess can lead to losing power in the long run. >> did you say that vladimir putin may have been using wagner to pressure his very own head of the military? >> yes, he has ruled this way

for a long time. he uses maybe one part of his leadership. he was up one day -- then the other day, pushback on somebody else. kind of the classic divide and rule. i think prigozhin was a handy tool for him to put pressure on shrug you, maybe you blame shrug you or others for what was happening. but it is obviously gunning out of control. he thought he could control, now he can't. >> how does this and do you think? >> like i said, i think in the short term he will be able to squash this. but in the long term, dictators, it's when that shrink in the armor shows that things start to change. he has control moscow through fear for 20 years, just like in eastern me in other places. once they start to change, people become not afraid anymore. or they see the possibility of change, then things may spiral out of control for dictator. this is a really dangerous time

for people. >> all right, thank you so much for your expertise. we appreciate the time. it is the most dramatic threat so far as has been said a vladimir putin's power in decades, the wagner group troops marching towards moscow. the russian army rushing to defend that capital. the situation keeps unfolding hour by hour. we just ask a retired four star general if putin can defend himself. he said it all depends on the loyalty of his troops. the conversation with congressman mike, co-chair of the ukraine caucus in just a few minutes. the ukraine caucus in just a few minutes. >> good day from msnbc world headquarters in new york, welcome to alex witt reports. i'm richard louis in for alex on this saturday. breaking news of course that we are following for you, developments out of russia at this hour as we've been following all day. historic standoff underway right now and perhaps the biggest threat to vladimir putin's control of russia since he came into power two decades ago. this is a live picture of these

-- these are some pictures of moscow, of the area around moscow and in russia. this is not ukraine as the pictures up until today have been so different. we've been following this standoff underway and perhaps the biggest conflict that we have seen in russia since the early 90s. we have a panel of reporters and analysts ready to go, all to cover the days developments and tell us where this might be headed. we begin with nbc's kelly cobiella, these developments in russia have been extremely dramatic and fast moving. what can you tell us about what is happening there right now? >> well richard, just in the past few minutes, the russian foreign ministry has released a statement saying that the west should not take advantage of russia's domestic situation. clearly, acknowledging that

this armed rebellion, as putin is calling it, and saying that it will be dealt with essentially in the statement. but this is just extraordinary what has happened over the past 24 hours. the wagner group forces now reportedly just 250 miles south of moscow, one of the governors for that region telling his people to stay inside, stay away from the main highway that connects rostov-on-don with moscow because wagner forces have been seen in the area. the reports of other governors telling their populations to restrict their travel, to stay at home. some governors say that they are closing borders, routes in and out of their promises from other areas. and of course, the mayor of moscow telling people that moscow is under an anti terror operation, that the situation is difficult, the people should stay home not just today, but

for next couple of days. stay home from work on monday. this is extremely unusual and shows how serious this is for the kremlin, for people in russia. and how seriously they're taking this move by wagner head evgeny prigozhin. all of this is played out over the past almost 24 hours now. it started with this really aggressive statement from prigozhin who has not been shy about his critiques towards the russian military establishment. he said in the past that they are mismanaging the war, they're not giving their troops enough ammunition. this time, he said in addition to that, that they are fighting the war in a false pretense. that you have all been lie to in his words. this is not -- the reason for the war was not because ukraine was going to attack us, the reason for the war is so that these top military officials can enrich themselves. once that message was released on wagner's social media

affiliated channels, a few hours after that wagner claimed -- prigozhin claims that his fighters were attacked. he claims by the russian military. moscow denies that. and then early this morning, we saw these remarkable reports of prigozhin and his forces moving across the border from ukraine into russia, taking over, they say, the city rostov-on-don. a city of about 1 million people and home to essentially a headquarters for the war against ukraine. he has said, prigozhin in these videos, he has said this is not a coup. this is an armed rebellion against the military. but clearly, moscow taking this extremely seriously. >> kelly cobiella, thank you for that. joining us -- allie rousey, what can you tell us about reaction there from what is happening in russia? >> well, the situation is very

volatile and it is very fluid in russia. i think most people that are in russia right now don't know what to expect or what side to take. look, this war has been particularly popular in russia. it was meant to be a three-day military operation, 16 months later their then dragged down into this war. the economy isn't good, they have been isolated from the entire world. so people in russia are possibly thinking, is this an opening to speak up against vladimir putin? is this a chance for them to air their grievances against the state. let's not forget, throughout this war, anybody who spoken up against and within russia has had the full weight of the law come down on them. it has been tolerated to go against vladimir putin. but now, this seems to be an opportunity for people to speak up and it also has put putin at a very, very precarious position. look, we have heard that the

wagner group have taken rostov-on-don, a town of 1 million people. they're moving more north towards moscow, very much unheated. that is a huge embarrassment for vladimir putin if he is even able to put down this uprising by the wagner group, which is a big possibility. he is got the weight of the army behind him. even if that all goes away at some point, this has been a disaster for him. this has shown an internal breakdown within the system so much so that the russian foreign ministry have released a statement saying that russian society has sharply rebuked these actions by the of ocular group, that the society remains free behind vladimir putin and this was designed to bring about a crack in society, to disrupt unity, to undermine the security of the country. they have warned western countries not to try to take advantage of this, not to get involved in what they call russia phobia. which is many --

criticism is called -- it is a very precarious situation on the ground in russia. but what is interesting richard, is speaking to our colleagues in ukraine that i've worked with so closely, there is a sense of joy in ukraine. there is a sense of often-ism in ukraine that this is happening in russia. that day for putin, but a good day for the ukrainians. >> nbc's ali arouzi in london for us. but again, tapping into months of reporting in ukraine as russian forces were attacking that country. ali, oscar to get your perspective, we appreciate that. here's a rough timeline of some of the key points in the story, this breaking story that we've been covering today. 4 am eastern, the wagner group claims to have effectively taken control of rostov-on-don as the southern russian city where the headquarters for the ukraine war is based. that city, it's about a 12 hour

drive to moscow north. a few hours later, at 7 am eastern reporting saying that the governor of varonis says videos allegedly showing military vehicles taking some tanks north are fake. vanished is on the road to moscow, about six hours from the capital city. then 11 am eastern, let pets, which can see on the map here, wagner vehicles reaching this area as the reporting in the region shows. the city, five hours and 45 minutes to moscow. so it is two hours later as we are looking at one pm eastern here in the east. joining us now, retired admiral james. msnbc chief international -- and former supreme allied commander of nato. thank you so much for being here as well as peter baker from the new york times. great have both of you. let's go with this first, when

we look at the strength of the wagner mercenary group, what is your thought on this? what are their capabilities now that they have actually shifted allegiances if you will admiral, in the conflict in the region. >> first and foremost, the wagner group is a cut above the conventional russian armed forces. principally because they tend to be contract soldiers who are well paid, have been a very successful in a number of campaigns all over africa. they were the victors of bakhmut's such as it was. so they are better fighting force i would say. man for man. as they run up this road against largely conscript armies. but, as they get closer to moscow, the more elite russian conventional forces that putin

frankly has not really committed to the fight in ukraine will get into play. it is kind of a race against time at this point. principally, watch for the russian air force. the wagner group troops, if they are moving on a highway, peter knott can both remember the highway of death in iraq years ago, how those armored columns were simply destroyed by air power. i don't think the wagner group remotely has the air power or the mobile air defense systems. it is going to be a harder military problem as these forces move north. but i wouldn't count them out. as i look at prigozhin, he is kind of a charismatic figure to his troops. he spends a lot of time with them. when i look at him as a military leader, i think he is a very effective. and as a result, if you are in the kremlin right now, i think your word, richard. >> you know what, one of the

things we have been discussing here peter is how far the wagner mercenary group might be from moscow right now. and the admiral saying, and what others have told us, the question is, will prigozhin be able to get potentially hear some russian troops to support him? will he get the hearts and minds of folks as he is moving north, as he is putting all these messages on social media to try to gain support for what he is saying. the elite has won this war, i do not trust shoigu who is the head of the military in russia. do they have the hearts and minds, does prigozhin have that ability? >> that's the real question. that is the history in russia. a force like the wagner group, as powerful as it is is obviously not capable of taking on the entire russian armed forces, if the armed forces remained loyal to putin. if they are really aiming to do something significant in moscow, they're going to have to pick up support, they're going to have to either hope that

regulates will join them in whatever they're planning to do, or stay in the barracks and refused to come out against them. we have seen this before in history, 1917 we saw this in 1991. when you win over the military, how you perceive this kind of thing, we don't know that. there's a lot of evidence that there is discontent in the regular armed forces in russia over this war and how it has been conducted. prigozhin taps into that discontent, week -- he criticizes shoigu and the military establishment, he's making the case that they have made you, the russian soldier, the cannon father. why should you do that? you could see the possibility there, he could pick up support. i think that's what the kremlin was most worried about. >> admiral, what shape is the russian army in as they face this according to prigozhin. he said i got into rostov-on-don, that key southern military help and i didn't have to fire a shot. that is what he is saying.

but if that were to be true, that shows that russian troops either based on age or experience as you are talking about a second ago, it doesn't seem to be very well matched to what wagner might have in his arsenal. >> i think that is an accurate assessment and certainly the russian regular forces led by not only defense minister shoigu and chief of defense, the senior officer gruesome of. i know them both very well for my days as we malik manner in nato. these are not charismatic or effective leaders. in that sense, prigozhin is very correct in his criticism. the proof is in the putting. ukraine, which is hardly a military power and tell the west began to supply him train them. they have really fought the russians to a standstill and -- let's go back to the air war.

the air war are winning the air war over ukraine and if putin can't convince the air power troops to come into the fight, i think his chances of staying in power are pretty good. call it better than even at this point. but i think there is a warning three chance that this could descend into a kind of a prolonged conflict much like russia of 1917. how did that turn out? the last czar of all the russians, nicholas was overthrown, shot to death in a dirty basement in the mountains. it could go very badly for putin. >> the bolsheviks revolution. you know peter, tapping into your bureau chief experience, i was in moscow in 1993 and in the summer months later, we then saw, and we will go back to 1973 to 1993, when you have the constitutional crisis, you have tanks firing on government

buildings. put this in context for us, peter. we haven't seen 1917, and now today, we see troops potentially fighting at each other, shooting at each other in the country. >> this is the first time in 30 years that we have seen this action in the streets of russia. it is chilling for anybody of a certain age who remembers of course the 91 coup, the company shut the white house that is been made in the parliament. you are right to look at 1917, who mentioned 1917 today? vladimir putin. he knows history as well. 1917 is not just chilling in the way that admirals had mentioned where these are ends up shot to death in the basement as he really puts it. it is also instructive because it was a moment when the internal russian order is still a war that emerged from that revolution. they pulled them out of world war i. that is when they created their

own centerpiece and basically fold the lines at the front. the question for the united states and nato at this moment is we, something like that, would happen here? is this the end, not just for russia unity, but is at the end of any effective russian war effort in ukraine. we don't know that. we should get ahead of things, there are a lot of things to drop here. that is the consequence that you're looking at here in the kremlin and in the pentagon. >> quickly admiral -- >> if i could richard, let me just add. 1917 to 1922, the bolsheviks revolution, the russian revolution toward the country apart. here is a news flash, there were no nuclear weapons at that time. today there are thousands of nuclear weapons all across russia. if i'm in the pentagon,, if i'm in the supreme headquarters of nato. if i'm in an allied capital, i would focus like a laser beam on what is happening to the nukes, are they protected, are

they in a stable situation. i think that is the number one concern here. >> admiral, quickly here, what happens to the warden ukraine now that russia has been advancing? does it shorten? what we are seeing today. >> it is too soon to tell, but i would say yes. clearly this is going to take emphasis away from the fight, it's going to give lift to the ukrainian offensive that is in progress right now. it is going to encourage allies to continue to work with ukraine. it is hard to see a negative consequence of this for the ukrainians, unless we get to the really dark end of the scenario and the wheels totally come off in russia. i don't think that is where we are headed. but here is the final thought, all of this, good day in kyiv. it really is. >> admiral, thank you so much. peter baker, for staying with us this hour, appreciate you both and your analysis. max guest has served on the

intelligence committee, now co-chairs that ukraine caucus. he has a lot to say about what is unfolding in russia right now. congressman mike quigley when we are back in 60 seconds. n mike quigley whe we are back in 60 seconds. we are back in 60 seconds. - this is our premium platinum coverage map and this is consumer cellular's map. - i don't see the difference, do you? - well, that one's purple. - [announcer] get the exact same coverage as the nation's leading carrier. starting at $20. consumer cellular. if we want a more viable future for our kids, we need to find more sustainable ways of doing things. america's plastic makers are investing billions of dollars in new technologies and creating plastic products that are more recyclable. durable. and dependable. our goal is a cleaner, healthier planet for generations to come.

for a better tomorrow, we're focused on making plastics better today. >> following breaking news coming out of russia, this video we've been showing you, we now understand that a fire erupted in southern russia. this at a fuel depot after reports of an explosion there. firefighters are working to put out the blaze right now, it is happening in the city of verona. that is halfway between rostov-on-don and moscow. about six hours south. you can see that right there on the map. which, by the way, is one of the wagner group's stops in their march to moscow. we have reports that they've also been in love pets. joining me now is democratic congressman mike quigley of illinois, co-chair of the congressional ukraine caucus. representative, thank you for being with us, you're a member of the house intelligence committee for several years.

looking tell us about this mercenary group wagner and our capabilities? >> well look, there are a lot better than the rank and file russian troops and they are obviously very angry right now. the motion they have is much greater than most. i think up until the time that they get closer to moscow. but i have to say, your previous guest said this was a good job in kyiv. yes, but i think there's a lot of concern as well as to what a desperate putin might do in the situation. i was in kyiv last year and ukraine and i saw what putin is capable of doing. it is of great concern. >> why would you say the wagner troupe, the front ground troops, the boots on the ground, why they would say we are also angry at the elite. is it because they were treated on the frontlines in ukraine? >> how they were treated, the

real comments that they were fired upon by russian troops. they have all the motivation in the world to do exactly what they intend to do i guess as they approach moscow. but again, i think the reaction here when we talk about this is look, his comments are pretty important, the fact that he attacked putin in justification of this war. how will that affect the mindset of the everyday russian, not just the russian public. how will that distract their efforts there. will they have more people leave the conflict? i think that is part of the good news. he has control of the operational area in the south that was directing this war and finally look, he lost the wagner group as a fighting force against ukraine and now you've got to bring russian troops back to fight them. the opportunities are there.

but with great opportunities come great risk. again, i saw what he did. as we saw them blew up the dam in the south, you have to have great concern for what would happen in a nuclear power complex that was much bigger than chernobyl. >> so you're leading earlier to the what ifs and the concern about, if you have vladimir putin that is desperate, what will he do with the strategic nuclear arms, what we do with these weapons. and where are they today? you get these white papers that are like these scenarios that say this happens, this is what we do. where are you at in what we are seeing today based on an internal conflict. you have the wagner group pushing north and a rebellion as vladimir putin is saying right now, what is the thinking if you're talking to intelligence right now in the u.s. capital? >> i think what is happening with the intelligence community and the pentagon is exactly

what you're hearing, the president is talking to our allies. you can only prepare for those possibilities, share the information that you have and get ukraine prepared for any scenario that takes place again. it is not just knowing where the new star and what a desperate putin might do, it is also the realization that russia say he puts this rebellion down or if he fails and takes over, who is next is guaranteed to be better? hence, it depends on how this could be services have been co-opted. as seems obvious to me that they have been, but we don't know to the extent. he wasn't angry with the invasion, the hard right nationals. they were angry and embarrassed that it was going so poorly. do you think that if putin is replaced, that things would be better in russia, i think not.

i think what is most likely is he's able to put this down and for the meantime it is a precarious situation. >> how big of a deal, representative, is it that leader of the wagner group wants a putin ally, is now turning on him? will he be the only oligarchic that turns on vladimir putin? >> we hear -- you certainly get the impression that others in the security services have co-opted. i don't know how you find out what is taking place right now, who else might be. i guess what i've learned in a situation like this is, things that were inconceivable, or inconceivable intel they are not. i don't know how anyone could've predicted exactly how this was unfolding so far. how quickly it has unfolded. look, when we get brief notes, never with 100 percent certainty. we are told the situation to the extent that it is understood. we are giving degrees of

certainty about what could happen under different circumstances. but at some point in time, it becomes a calculus with multiple variables. the best we can do is prepare for any eventuality, share the information with our allies, and be ready to react with what we have to do. >> democratic congressman mike quigley of illinois, co-chair of the congressional ukraine caucus. thank you sir. >> thank you. >> what does all this mean for ukraine? we will -- delivering a quicker and to the war? i will talk to a member of the ukrainian parliament next about how they view this very moment. t abou how they view this very moment (vo) it's red hot deal days from verizon! where you can get the incredible iphone 14 pro max on us with myplan. so you get exactly what you want and only pay for what you need. act now and get iphone 14 pro max on us when you switch. for a limited time only. it's your verizon.

it's not too late to show summer's who's boss. and wayfair's got just what you need. they have all the top grills and gear. with smoking fast shipping. and wayfair deals so epic... you'll feel like a big deal. yes! so get outdoorsy for way less at wayfair. ♪ wayfair, you've got just what i need ♪ and this is ready to go online. any questions? -yeah, i got one. how about the best network imaginable? let's invent that. that's what we do here. quick survey. who wants the internet to work, pretty much everywhere. and it needs to smooth, like super, super, super, super smooth. hey, should you be drinking that? -it's decaf. because we're busy women. we don't have time for lag or buffering. who doesn't want internet that helps a.i. do your homework even faster. come again. -sorry, what was that?

introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. >> breaking news out of russia, the future starts now. the very latest on the breaking developments as a historic standoff is underway right now between vladimir putin and the wagner mercenary group. it is perhaps the biggest threat to putin's leadership since he came to power in 1999.

right now, putin mobilizing russian military forces, vowing to crush what he is called an act of treason being led by former ally yevgeny prigozhin whose forces at the moments are rapidly advancing towards moscow. this after the mercenary seized control of the key military base in the southern city of rostov-on-don. also this last hour, moscow's mayor announcing that a counterterrorism operation is in effect in moscow, canceling the workday, asking people to please stay home. u.s. officials saying today, they are watching the situation closely. also just in, the governor in the area around moscow saying, no public demonstrations or activity. no mass public events until july 1st. let's bring in member of the ukrainian parliament. member, thank you for being with us, how did the ukrainian people perceive what is going on in russia right now?

just moments ago my colleague saying that he spoke to some of the people in ukraine and that this is a happy day for them. what are you hearing? >> hello richard, thank you so much for having me. well, let's make it clear, there are no good guys there. it is a group of russians that are in disagreement with another group of russians on what is the best way to kill us and destroy us here in ukraine. so, as it is a common saying right now in ukraine, we are cheering for both teams. but the truth is, the more weapons they destroy right now killing each other and fighting against each other, the more missiles, the more soldiers, the more tanks, the less would come to our territories and the less would be coming again, destroying ourselves. so we are watching closely of course and we are telling the world look.

the one who says the violence, reach the balance. this is what president zelenskyy said. we support that because we have told the world and we've actually told russians that they are in a very dangerous situation for themselves. they weaponized the criminals, literally criminals and right now they are turning their backs on them and the situation is very unstable. i think we -- i think the main thing that would happen within the next 24 hours, you see how fast things are unraveling there. if all of the republic of russia and belarus, if they're waiting for a good time to declare their sovereignty in a more democratic way, then right now is the time. >> remember just a moment ago, you're talking about president zelenskyy. well he released a public statement, can you give us a sense about how he feels about scribbling and have you spoken

to him personally in the last 24 hours? >> but i'm not spoken to him personally, but we are all looking at this as an opportunity for our counteroffensive, to make sure that russia is -- that they will not be concentrated on the front line and so we will be able to advance with minimal losses. this is the hope that we have. >> what are you hearing about this what this means based on the russian fighting, what it means for the war itself? do you have a sense in terms of what is happening now that putin has shifted his focus from ukraine and instead now he is focusing on the wagner group? >> well, since i -- things are unwrapping really quickly right now so i think we will hear about military advancement of ukrainian army earlier, earlier tomorrow. and right now, we are looking at this as everyone else.

the question would be on how quickly the putin -- and what would be the end of it. because if they would come into agreement and it would just show the whole world that putin 's regime is not as strong as they have said. however, it would not mean a huge advance for us. but, on a personal note, given that we have spent last night in the bomb shelters again and having three people killed in kyiv by missile attacks, it is, it shows some way of justice that russian people are experiencing a summer thing that we have experienced. they do not know what is going on and they are just seeing lots of people who are wearing military uniforms and trying to destroy whoever. so, again, we hope that that

will give us an opportunity to march forward and get our advancement in the counteroffensive. this is the most pragmatic and practical thing that we should be looking at, at what is happening in russia right now. >> you really underlined it quite well their member. you now have a shared experience, and unfortunate shared experience of the russian people, the ukrainian everyday people facing this same experience a bomb shelters, of concern about military action and they are very homes. thank you so much, member of the ukrainian parliament. thank you for spending time with us. reaction from washington to the rapid developments in russia. we've got that for you next on this breaking story. right here on msnbc. on this breaking story. right here on msnbc. right here on msnbc. ♪

tourists tourists that turn into scientists. tourists photographing thousands of miles of remote coral reefs. that can be analyzed by ai in real time. ♪ so researchers can identify which areas are at risk. and help life underwater flourish. ♪ ♪ the thought of getting screened ♪ ♪ for colon cancer made me queasy. ♪ ♪ but now i've found a way that's right for me. ♪ ♪ feels more easy. ♪ ♪ my doc and i agreed. ♪ ♪ i pick the time. ♪ ♪ today's a good day. ♪ ♪ i screened with cologuard and did it my way! ♪ cologuard is a one-of-a kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45 plus at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪ i did it my way! ♪ want a worry-free way to kill bugs?

zevo traps use light to attract and trap flying insects with no odor and no mess. they work continuously, so you don't have to. zevo. people-friendly. bug-deadly. >> breaking news out of russia,

pictures here, the white house on the left, moscow on the right. right now in russia, putin has vowed to retaliate on the rebellion group, the wagner group that is marching towards moscow. after they claimed control of the russian city in the south a rostov-on-don, a key military hub. this comes as top u.s. officials are keeping a close eye on the situation. nbc's monica alba and julia are in washington with the latest reaction from the biden administration and lawmakers there. monica, we are gonna start with you at the white house? have we heard anything from president biden? >> not on camera, richard, i

think that is a decision here by the white house and the administration overall to continue to really gather information about this fast developing situation in russia. we now know that the president, the vice president were both briefed this morning by their national security team and that included everybody from the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, the cia director, odni director, also others who are playing key roles in everything as it relates to the relationship with russia, the ongoing war in ukraine over the more than a year and a half or so -- so it is something clearly or the white house is still trying to assess what if anything they want to say on the situation, but what is been clear here is that the president did take time this morning to speak to some key leaders and allies. he spoke to emmanuel macron of france, chancellor olaf scholz of germany and prime minister rishi sunak of the uk. and the three leaders did discuss the situation in russia

from a very short read out at the white house gave. that was a topic on of the conversation. and the only thing they want to stress was that all of the leaders affirm their support for ukraine. but beyond that right now, there is very much that we are hearing. the president, we should note, just leave the white house a short time ago for camp david. that was a previously planned departure and travel. he's spending the night there before he is expected to return to the white house tomorrow. there were journalists who accompanied him to join base andrews. if the president want to walk over the camera and share something, he could have, but he chose not to instead boarding marine one with his son hunter biden and his grandson, for biden to make that trip to can't david where we don't expect the president to have any public events or make any on camera remarks. the vice president for her part is traveling in charlotte, north carolina, giving a major address on this one year anniversary of the dobbs decision. it is possible that she will be around cameras later if she

wants to weigh in. but so far, given the opportunity, a couple of times she has decided not to speak about this as again. the white house continues to assess this. we should also point out, richard, that the president is at camp david with his national security adviser jake sullivan who will be continuing to brief him throughout the day. >> julie on capitol hill, what are you hearing from lawmakers today about all of this, this breaking news that we have been covering? >> well richard, one of the first reactions we received was last night when the top two leaders of the powerful senate intel committee called the internal situation in russia significant and that sentiment was echoed by lawmakers this morning. here's one said earlier about the significance of this moment. >> it looks like we don't have the sound, julia. >> apologies there.

i could summarize it for you richard. representative connally said this could be the unraveling of the putin regime and saying that it is the biggest exit central threat that he has face in his entire rain as leader of russia. >> julia, i think we have got it, i think we can play for folks. >> okay. >> you know the way goes, let's play that sound and we'll get to your reporting. >> sounds good. >> this could very well be the unraveling of the putin machine. this is the biggest extensions threat he has faced in his 23 years in rule. to have a 25,000 man force take without resistance the command center of all russian activity in ukraine on rostov-on-don, as happened earlier this morning. it is a very significant development. >> now, lawmakers are warning

that while this could benefit ukraine with this internal strength in russia, that the wagner group and prigozhin or not ukraine's friend. you had the senator from hawaii saying a quicker mind in this case that the enemy of our enemy is also our enemy. you had congressman jason saying that this is not a man or a group that is less dangerous than putin. while this conflict could help ukraine, it is not necessarily a good thing for the global landscape. >> a consistent response so far. julie, thank you so much. monika alba at the white house for the very latest there. insight from someone who has covered vladimir putin for years. that is next. imir putin for years. that is ne that is ne xt ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

♪♪ get 2.9% apr for 36 months plus $1,500 purchase allowance on a 2023 xt5 and xt6 when you finance through cadillac financial. if you have heart disease and are on a statin, lowering cholesterol can be hard. and diets and exercise add to the struggle. it can feel never-ending. but today, it's possible to go from struggle to cholesterol success with leqvio. taken with a statin, leqvio is proven to lower bad cholesterol by over 50%. so, if you feel like you're getting nowhere... ...go with 2 doses a year of leqvio and keep bad cholesterol low. common side effects were injection site reaction, joint pain, urinary tract infection, diarrhea, chest cold, pain in legs or arms,

and shortness of breath. when you're ready to go from struggle to cholesterol success, talk to your doctor about twice-yearly leqvio to help you lower your cholesterol. lower. longer. leqvio. ♪ at pnc bank, lower. longer. leqvio. you can find us in big cities and small towns across the us, where our focus is to always support the people who live and work there. because you call these communities home, and we do too. pnc bank.

want a worry-free way to kill bugs? zevo traps use light to attract and trap flying insects with no odor and no mess. they work continuously, so you don't have to. zevo. people-friendly. bug-deadly. >> more of the big news in msnbc. we have some breaking news on

this developing story today. joining us for the latest on this story, this conflict that is happening in russia within the russian border. matt in london, that, what are you hearing? >> thank you richard. well i very astonishing development after what has been obviously an astonishing 24 hours in russia. yevgeny prigozhin, the head of the wagner mercenary group is on the march to moscow. he is standing down. in a statement was issued just recently on his telegram channel, saying that they wanted to disassemble his group and that is why they were marching. he understands now though that while no blood has been spilled so far, the time for bloodshed was coming. and understand the responsibility of this has chosen to turn back. we are learning a little bit more from the belarusian side, a telegram channel close to the president administration in belarus as often used to issue statements has said that belarusian president alex -- he actually been negotiating

with prigozhin all day and convinced him to stand down. a very unexpected development. moscow of course already on high alert, a day off plan on monday for counterterrorism operation. unclear what will happen now we've got to wait and see if yevgeny prigozhin actually turns around. and is not actually look as if the crisis is over yet. that could still happen here. a very surprising turn of events to say the least. >> now, it is hard to know, you have two reports right now, one coming from yevgeny prigozhin as well as one from the belarusian leader saying that i've got this done. has this been -- three no anything in terms of how long this discussion has been happening outside with the belarusian leader? >> we do not, suffice to say that the belarusian leader, at least the reports we're hearing from the belarusian journalists who are close to the belarusian president, lukashenko is claiming that this has been going on all day. he was kind of doing this on behalf of the russian president vladimir putin.

we know that the two of the smoke earlier about the situation so there is a lid of a timeline match there, certainly we can say it is possible that that is very much what has been happening throughout the day. they were definitely a few times where prigozhin seemed to be taking a step back from his incessant publishing of audio messages throughout the day, kind of reinforcing his message and urging his guys on. something is going on in the background, it seems, we are not entirely sure what role putin played in this, we still not heard anything from the kremlin on this couch. from prigozhin, saying that he is turning around, we are going to have to see what exactly that looks like. he says they're going to return to their field camps, we will see. >> matt, going directly back to the social media posts from yevgeny prigozhin, is he saying this in a way that is calm, braggadocious at all? did he win?

obviously, it is hard to assess all of that. but he did post something, he did pick his language. he has not come out, at least in a very sharp way against vladimir putin directly in a. this might be consistence with that. what are you seeing in his posts? >> i would say his tone continues to be angry, but there is certainly a little bit of a calmer tone in his later message. he essentially is agreeing to stand down, but he is pointing out that what he has done so far was in response to an attack from what he says is the russian defense ministry on his troops. again calling this a justice march and refusing to take responsibility for being the one to start bloodshed between russians. he continues to be sharply, but the way he speaks is very intense. that is still in those audio messages. but definitely a step back from what we are hearing. >> and this was an audio message? >> correct.

>> and when did that post come out roughly? >> about ten, 15 minutes ago. >> ten or 15 minutes ago. >> a recent development. >> very recently. we are from the belarusian leader also coming out about the same time, saying that it looks like we have put together some kind of stand down agreement between wagner group, yevgeny prigozhin, and vladimir putin, or go the russian forces versus the wagner forces. >> the belarusian president is claiming to -- getting him to agree to step down, to back down and pair his forces back to their feel bases behind the lines in ukraine. >> do we know about the belarusian leader's relationship with wagner, yevgeny prigozhin, as well as vladimir putin?

does lukashenko have a long historic relationship with him -- putin and lukashenko, but what about wagner's leader and lukashenko? >> that is a good question. obviously we know that there is a strong establish relationship between lukashenko and putin, i cannot say that i know that he has met prigozhin very many times. suffice to say, prigozhin has been in putin's orbit for a long time, so has lukashenko. i'm sure that they have met each other a number of times, but they don't seem to have -- there's not the kind of report that lukashenko has with vladimir putin for example. >> just for a timeline and context, if you're just joining us on msnbc. we are just learning in the last ten or 15 minutes that there seems to be a brokered deal between wagner and vladimir putin. yevgeny prigozhin and vladimir putin, the last 24 hours it has been accelerating. we've been showing you the maps. the progress has been quick,

rostov-on-don, that key southern military base being taken just earlier this morning, eastern time. then reports of wagner troops making it up to grown-ish, that is halfway to moscow. six hours away. then lit that's, five and a half hours away from moscow. and then we are hearing just in the last ten or 15 minutes, thanks to matt's reporting here, that there is a post from yevgeny prigozhin that there is a deal of some sort and that this is to avoid any military conflict between russian troops, russian regular troops and wagner troops. were there any other details here, matt, in terms of what will that look like, are they going to relieve rostov-on-don, are they going to stop the move north, anything like that? i know it's early, he just got this news coming across in the last 15 minutes. >> so it is still early, but we do know, one detail he says is

that he is turning his columns around. presumably they're heading back towards rostov-on-don. that region of eastern ukraine that the russians occupy. so again an open question whether not they will leave rostov, but wouldn't have to assume, based on the statements, how this is represented by lukashenko and prigozhin, this involves some kind of stand down in rostov as well. we're gonna see how this plays out. >> joining us now is robert look that he, executive producer with the news and special teams at the wall street journal. that is the unit responsible for the documentary released two years ago inside the wagner group. russia's secret work company. let me ask you, but we're about to talk shortly, we get this breaking news that there is a deal, what do you make of this potential deal? >> i think it is -- it -- we worked on this documentary for the last six months and a

whole time we are kind of thinking, what is prigozhin's angle here? is he going to threaten vladimir putin ultimately? or is he some sort of mouthpiece for vladimir putin? i have to say, it is surprising, but i guess that is par for the course from what we've seen over the last six for eight months from prigozhin. >> you have to compress what has happened over many months and years and what is happened in the last 24 hours for us. but what did happen? what was the falling out in the last 24 hours, over the last week and then what has happened in the last bunch of hours? because we have a deal, would you think that is happening to that relationship? >> you know, it is hard to say. i think what we learned from working on this documentary was that prigozhin was clearly in some way approved by putin to run the wagner group. this is an apparatus that sort of existed in russia, funneling

money through companies, through shell companies to execute military operations around the world. that has allowed wagner to spread around the world in the last ten years. >> was this a power play by yevgeny prigozhin, that he wanted more power than he already had? >> it certainly seems that way. i think the way i think about it sometimes is that this group was created to sort of be the -- do the dirty work for the russian state. and sort of allow some plausible deniability to do things around the world that putin didn't want known, that the russian state was involved in. and maybe now, prigozhin and wagner have gone bigger than anyone really imagined. i think that is sort of what we were looking at in this documentary, tracing this trajectory. >> and you trace that trajectory and who yevgeny prigozhin is. if this comes out to play, the way we think it is, this deal

is verified and again we are getting initial reporting, he is a high stakes player at the highest level because he is just pushed vladimir putin to the very limits and what he gets, we don't know. >> yeah, i think that's right. but i think it also makes him probably one of the most endangered people in the entire world right now. because, i think this whole time we've been looking at prigozhin and thinking, how far can he push this? even though we sort of talked about would he ever threaten, putin's power, to see it happening now is just kind of fascinating. but also, i think the fact that he seems to be pulling back now, it may say something -- you have to remember, the whole time he has been sort of been very careful about attacking the ministry of defense or one of the top generals. i remember specifically until yesterday.

and today, never specifically attacking putin himself. which seems to be a really tricky balancing act for him. >> again, the breaking news if you're just joining us on him as nbc, just coming in that wagner telling us that there evidently is some deal that's yevgeny prigozhin, the leader of wagner who today was moving at lightning speed it would appear north towards moscow, has somehow released a deal. we don't know what that means but he is essentially going to stop his move. he is no longer evidently, from the reporting, and according to the belarusian leader, alexander lukashenko, that he brokered this understanding between vladimir putin and yevgeny prigozhin. so this will stop, whatever it was about to happen, they don't want to have bloodshed between the two forces, in case you're just joining us, we are gonna get you up on that. and then robert liberty, you're documentary just coming out on who is wagner? you couldn't be here at a better time, you're going after we added it i think.

>> i hope not. but we made this piece because we saw back at the end of the year in december that wagner was becoming a bigger and bigger force on the ground injury. they had started their prison recruitment program. they were taking inmates out of prisons in russia and putting them on the battlefield. in september, prigozhin came out and made a public acknowledgment that he was the head of wagner in september of last year, and we see him in this video he's at prisons recruiting inmates, to fight in ukraine. that is the beginning of where we started to pay more attention to doing something more. >> 30 seconds, did the wagner group, did these troops, yevgeny prigozhin, did any one of these complexes, did they have more of the hearts and minds of russia than potentially vladimir putin did? is that a concern? >> i mean, i think that's a great question.

i think what we saw in the last six or eight months was prigozhin building up his following. on telegram, on social media, playing to the hearts and minds. he was building that up to gain power to do something. also, he was the person that broke the news that there is a deal on this social platform. the news and specials team on the wall street journal just finished. you can see on your screen right now, a documentary on the wagner group. thank you so much for being here. the breaking news, evidently there is a deal between wagner and vladimir putin, that is the breaking news. we will have more on this all afternoon here on msnbc. that does it for me on this edition of alex witt reports. i'm in for alex. today i will see you tomorrow at one pm eastern. yasmin vossoughian takes up this breaking news coverage. >>